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Live Kalshi prediction-market feed connected

The wisdom of prediction markets.
Powered by AI.

Discover AI-generated investing insights built from real-time prediction markets, public sentiment, and explainable analysis — updated daily or hourly. SentientFund never executes trades or connects to your brokerage.

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Explainable
AI reasoning
Public data
Kalshi + more
No trading
Insights only
Sample dashboard preview
Bullish signals
12
Bearish signals
4
AI confidence
78%
US Technology Outlook
AAPLMSFTNVDA
82%
Fed Rate Cut by Q4
TLTXLF
67%
Bitcoin > $150k in 2026
IBITCOIN
41%
Semiconductor Growth
SMHNVDA
74%
AI reasoning · sample: Prediction markets show strengthening tech conviction; semis lead the move. Sample data — connect the live dashboard for real Kalshi feeds.
Live · Kalshi
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?18%
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?23%
2030 FIFA World Cup Champion7%
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?19%
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?18%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?37%
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?4%
Will Trump resign during his term?17%
Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?7%
Which G7 leader will leave office next?2%
Who will become Prime Minister of India after next general election?1%
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?82%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for the Portugal National Team again?77%
Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?4%
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?12%
Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond40%
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?3%
Will Messi play for the Argentina National Team again?54%
Will Nick Fuentes become President of the United States before 2045?16%
When will Ukraine hold a presidential election?56%
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?18%
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?23%
2030 FIFA World Cup Champion7%
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?19%
Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?18%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin speak?37%
Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?4%
Will Trump resign during his term?17%
Will Trump be allowed to run for a 3rd term?7%
Which G7 leader will leave office next?2%
Who will become Prime Minister of India after next general election?1%
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?82%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo play for the Portugal National Team again?77%
Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?4%
Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?12%
Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond40%
What will be the 51st state in Trump's term?3%
Will Messi play for the Argentina National Team again?54%
Will Nick Fuentes become President of the United States before 2045?16%
When will Ukraine hold a presidential election?56%
Watch

Any questions? Check out the YouTube video!

A quick walkthrough of how SentientFund turns prediction-market data into investing insights.

Live AI Insights

Today's AI Market Insights

Auto-generated from live public prediction markets. Every insight is explainable — the AI shows its reasoning, confidence, and the signals it used.

Rates & Duration

Kevin Warsh out as Fed chair?

Bearish
Probability
4%
AI Confidence
High
Recommendation

Fading cut odds (4%) favor SHORT TLT, LONG XLF

SHORTTLTLong-duration Treasuries move inversely to policy rates; 4% cut-odds pressures TLT.
LONGXLFBank NIMs compress when the curve steepens on cuts; invert when rates hold.
SHORTIWMSmall-caps carry heavier floating-rate debt and benefit most from cuts.

Kalshi is pricing a 4% probability of the specified Fed action. Rate-sensitive assets (long bonds, small-caps) move directly with this expectation; financials tend to move opposite.

3d agoAI-generated · not advice
AI & Semiconductors

Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?

Bearish
Probability
18%
AI Confidence
High
Recommendation

Fading AI narrative (18%) — SHORT NVDA, SMH

SHORTNVDANVIDIA supplies the training compute for every frontier lab.
SHORTSMHDiversified semi ETF captures the full AI infra buildout.
SHORTMSFTAzure + OpenAI partnership; hyperscaler capex proxy.

Prediction-market conviction on this AI milestone (18%) is a leading tell for semi & hyperscaler multiples over the following weeks.

3d agoAI-generated · not advice
Defense & Geopolitics

Who will succeed Netanyahu as Prime Minister of Israel?

Bearish
Probability
12%
AI Confidence
High
Recommendation

Geopolitical risk at 12% — WATCH ITA, LMT, RTX

WATCHITAAerospace & defense ETF — direct beneficiary of elevated defense spend.
WATCHLMTLockheed — largest US defense prime contractor.
WATCHRTXRaytheon — missiles/air defense supply chain.

Rising odds of this conflict outcome (12%) historically expand defense-order backlogs and multiple.

3d agoAI-generated · not advice
Climate & Insurance

US meets its climate goals?

Bearish
Probability
2%
AI Confidence
High
Recommendation

Weather event at 2% — hedge insurance & utility exposure

LONGTRVP&C insurers absorb catastrophe losses.
LONGXLUUtilities face storm-hardening capex on severe weather.

2% odds on this weather outcome informs cat-loss expectations for insurers and utility capex cycles.

3d agoAI-generated · not advice
IPO Pipeline

Will Ramp or Brex IPO first?

Bearish
Probability
3%
AI Confidence
High
Recommendation

IPO odds soft (3%) — WATCH only

WATCHIPORenaissance IPO ETF benefits when the IPO window reopens.
WATCHGSGoldman leads IPO underwriting fee league tables.

3% odds of this IPO landing supports underwriter revenue and reopens the new-issue ETF trade.

3d agoAI-generated · not advice
Energy

What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?

Bullish
Probability
62%
AI Confidence
Low
Recommendation

Oil probability at 62% — LONG XLE, XOM

LONGXLEEnergy sector ETF — upstream margins expand with crude.
LONGXOMIntegrated major with highest earnings sensitivity to Brent.
LONGUSODirect WTI futures exposure.

Kalshi's 62% oil-outcome pricing typically leads energy-equity multiples by 1–2 weeks.

3d agoAI-generated · not advice
View full analysis in dashboard

AI-generated insight based on publicly available prediction market data from Kalshi.

Market Overview

Live prediction-market pulse

Most bullish sectors

  • Energy+1
  • M&A+1
  • Rates & Duration+-1
  • AI & Semiconductors+-1

Most bearish sectors

  • Policy & Politics-4
  • Rates & Duration-1
  • AI & Semiconductors-1
  • Defense & Geopolitics-1

AI confidence meter

61avg

Aggregated across 12 live markets

Market heatmap · live Kalshi probabilities

18
23
7
19
18
37
4
17
7
2
1
82
77
4
12
40
3
54
16
56
1
12
1
23
35
62
93
77
83
49
How it works

From prediction market to explainable insight.

01 · Pulse

The Pulse

Monitor public prediction markets including Kalshi to identify changing probabilities before traditional market reactions.

02 · Brain

The Brain

AI analyzes prediction markets, filters noise, measures confidence, and identifies companies and sectors that may benefit or face headwinds.

03 · Insight

The Insight

Receive explainable stock ideas, confidence ratings, sector analysis, and supporting evidence — without any automated trading.

Features

Everything you need to read the market's mind.

Prediction Market Intelligence

Continuously monitors publicly available prediction markets for significant probability changes.

AI-Powered Stock Insights

Transforms prediction-market movements into explainable stock and ETF recommendations.

Real-Time Sentiment Engine

Tracks crowd sentiment before traditional news outlets fully react.

Explainable AI

Every recommendation includes transparent reasoning, confidence scores, and the signals used to generate it.

Market Heatmaps

Visualize bullish and bearish trends across sectors at a glance.

Personalized Watchlists

Follow companies, ETFs, sectors, or prediction markets that matter most to you.

Historical Trend Analysis

View how prediction-market sentiment has evolved over time.

Secure Platform

Bank-grade encryption, secure authentication, and privacy-first architecture.

Live example

One prediction market. One explainable idea.

Every card on SentientFund shows the market, the AI's read, the confidence, and the reasoning — so you can decide for yourself. Nothing is hidden.

  • Live probabilities pulled from Kalshi's public API
  • Confidence scored from probability edge & 24h volume
  • Suggested exposure via liquid, well-known tickers
  • Refreshes automatically as markets move
Prediction Market
Bullish
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Probability
62%
Trend
▼ 1%
AI confidence
Low
Suggested exposure
XLEXOMUSO
Reason

Kalshi's 62% oil-outcome pricing typically leads energy-equity multiples by 1–2 weeks.

View Full Analysis

AI-generated insight based on publicly available prediction market data.

Daily AI Market Summary

Top LONG signal: XLF · top SHORT signal: TLT · Energy sentiment firming · 12 tradable prediction-market signals mapped to public equities.

Updated 3d ago · derived from 60 live Kalshi markets
Pricing

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Market updates depend on the availability and refresh rates of public data sources.